The pandemic of the coronavirus is likely to cause, for the automotive sector, a crisis far greater than that experienced after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. In particular, according to the research firm Ihs, Markit, the global demand in 2020 is meant to show a fall of over 12%, as against 8% recorded during the two years of global recession between 2008 and 2009, which led, among other things, the bankruptcy of General Motors and Chrysler.
Estimates. The forecast of Ihs is based on an evaluation of the performance of the application in the light of the prevention measures undertaken in recent weeks in different Countries of the world, as well as the plant closures, automotive , and about the limitations of the activities of the concessionaires. In essence, the research company, who may be forced to modify its analysis for the rapid development of the situation, expects global demand for cars in one “stall without the previous and almost instantly, with a decrease, compared to 2019, more than 12%: you would fall so to 78.8 million units, or nearly 10 million vehicles in less than the estimate provided in January, before the health crisis erupted in China.
The trend is regional. The chinese market, with Europe and North America, should be subjected to the worst fall, but the warning of the Ihs is clear: virtually all areas of the world will be faced with the “prospect of a certain degree of distortion of demand in the coming months.” In particular, sales in China should reach, in 2020, 22.4 million units, 2.3 million less than in 2019 (-10%). The decline, after the difficulties of the first three months of the year, should continue until the second half of the year, but the experts at Ihs warn that the overall trend strongly depends on the performance of the economy in general. In Europe, where the basic conditions worsen by the day, the sales are expected to be in decline 13.6% to 15.6 million units, or 1.9 million units less than forecast pre-coronavirus. Worst is the situation in the United States: for Ihs, the monetary policy measures announced by the Fed and the economic ones of the White House (now the Congress has approved a stimulus by 2 thousand billion dollars) are insufficient to prevent a collapse in consumption and therefore demand. Sales are, therefore, seen a decline of 15.3% to 14.4 million units, 2.4 million less than the previous estimate.
The worst risk factor. The pandemic is, therefore, revealing the “single factor of greatest risk” for the global automotive industry, and not only that, the health crisis is generating a further negative pressure on a sector already strained by other problems, wiping out the already weak growth prospects. Experts from the Ihs does not believe is possible, a return to growth in the short term and expect a “slow recovery” in the light of risks “heavily to the downside”: in essence, the probability of a worsening of the situation are decidedly superior to those of an improvement. In spite of the “glimmers of hope” that are coming from China, the automotive market, as well as the economy as a whole, can only rely on the intervention of public institutions: “The government initiatives are the key to controlling the virus is to provide packages of support and stimulus to help the economy.”
Source: Quattroruote.en – Edited by Anthon K.